Jul

8

Over Niagara in an eBook

Filed Under B2B, Big Data, Blog, eBook, Education, eLearning, Industry Analysis, internet, mobile content, Publishing, Search, semantic web, social media, Uncategorized, Workflow | 1 Comment

The ineffable Shatzkin reports (www.idealog.com/blog) this week on an innocent story with dramatic implications. It seems from his calculations from Hachette UK releases that if eBook sales are indeed now 25% of total sales (and 30% for fiction), then over 50% of sales in all are “online” (print and eBook), and for “some genres and authors, close to two-thirds”. Given that 80% of online in any format in the UK is Amazon, the book trade have acquired an intermediary who can, at any point, tilt the table with offers to authors that no other player can match. In short, the rules of the game can now change radically, the inflection point has been reached, and the “over Niagara in a barrel” experience of the music industry is about to be repeated. So let me, amidst the angst and heartbreak, the invocations of Longman in the 1720s or Murray 1 in the 1820s, the competition law actions, the desire to retain territoriality in a global market and all the other things which will inevitably follow, issue a plea for one small concession? When we have thrown out baby, bathwater and all, can we please throw out the ancient, encrusted law of Copyright as well, and then start over?

Its not, of course, that I despise Intellectual Property. Far from it. Intellectual ownership is hugely important and should be respected at all costs. The ability of individuals to ensure that their creativity is recognized and acknowledged is of paramount importance in a society where intellectual creativity has to be honoured and represents the only we have of saving ourselves – from ourselves. Nor do I baulk for a moment at the thought that individual creators, and their licensed intermediaries, should be able to make investments in the processes by which ideas and entertainment and education are released into society, and seek a good return on those investments. In short, the activity of the book trade, and every other IP based industry, could go on as it is for ever and I would not turn a hair. True, Book publishers (I was one for 20 years) have mostly been rascals, untrained for anything but with a nose for the money. Byron had it about right when he asserted to Murray that Barabbas was the first publisher. His faith in this would have been confirmed when his publisher burnt his memoirs to protect the Byron brand. Allen Lane and Jonathan Cape were sublime marketeers and I suspect that the editors who added lustre to the trade, like Max Perkins or Dick Seaver, realised a lot less out of it in terms of capital accumulation. Today it is a business of Super Corporations, and they must come to terms with Amazon in their own and various ways. Small publishing, the work of individuals to culture and develop excellence in unlit places, will flourish as honestly in the low cost start-up environment of the web as it always has elsewhere.

I know that the leadership of the publishing industry globally fear that Copyright is being eroded at every point. Trade associations reach for the adjectives to tell governments how vital it is to protect the existing framework of law. Fair Use must be protected – or rejected – according to where you live in the world. Educational re-use is a string back of exceptions and deceptions which enable publishers, librarians and teachers to persuade themselves that they have got the best of the deal in subclause 3(e) and thereby assured the protection of life on Earth for another generation. Meanwhile, copyright breach is an unpunished, apparently victimless crime, as sinless as speeding, whose conscious abusers claim that they are “liberating knowledge” while 90% of their brethren do not even know or realise what they are doing when streaming a downloaded book. Apparently victimless, but actually the whole system must be lubricated with cash to make it work, and the victims threatened are of course users themselves.

So, why don’t we step back from “Copyright”, desert the word with all those archaic suggestions of unfairness to learners or the poor, cease to talk about “monopoly” rights and thus invite the enmity of every competition lawyer on the planet, and begin in an new place with a new approach matched by a new language. In my own years of lobbying the European Commission, as junior delegate and bag carrier to the great Charles Clark, my Leader produced the new line in argument “The answer to the Machine must lie in the Machine”. How true, but so far we have not produced an answer half worthy of the Machine. Surely, in a machine age, where every network connection of any sort is known to the network, and every one of us is known as a user (and the National Security Agency plus GCHQ know what we use) we cannot be very far away a universal licensing regime? One that existed at several levels, to accommodate one to one, one to many, many to many forms of licensing. The latter may even be a levy on broadband or a network licensing scheme. Then we could move to global licensing organizations with real clout collecting funds which really were worthwhile to those whose Outed content is so vital to the remashing of information and content and data into new service environments. Which is how the internet operates.

But inside the Internet we are still trying to operate the Book Trade as if the Internet did not exist. Something here has to give. At a guess, at this moment, it will not be Amazon.

Jun

14

Seven Starters in Data Analytics

Filed Under B2B, Big Data, Blog, data analytics, Education, Financial services, healthcare, Industry Analysis, internet, mobile content, news media, online advertising, Publishing, Search, semantic web, social media, STM, Uncategorized, Workflow | 1 Comment

Phil Cotter’s comment on last week’s post here really got me going. Now that I know that suicide bombers max their credit cards before setting off to do the deed I somehow feel a gathering sympathy for the security services. So the starting point is 5 million up-to-the-limit cards? We need to funnel cash into predictive analytics urgently if anything we do is to show better results than airport security (to begin from a very low measure indeed). So I began to look for guidelines in the use and development of predictive analytics, thinking that while we wait for terrorist solutions we might at least get a better handle on marketing. I am surprized and impressed by how much good thinking there is available, so in the spirit of a series of blogs last year (Big Data: Six of the Best) here are some starting points on innovative analytics players who all have resonance for those of us who work in publishing, information and media markets. And a warning: the specialized media in these fields all seem to have lists of favoured start-ups enttitled “50 Best players in Data Analytics”, so I am guilty of scratching lightly at the start-up surface here.

In the same spirit of self-denial that drives me to abstain from a love of eating croissants for breakfast, I have also decided to stop using the expression “B** D***”. I am so depressed by publishers asking what it means, and then finding that, because of “definition creep” or “meaning drift”, I have defined it differently from everyone else, including my own last attempted definition, that I am going to cease the usage until the term dies a natural, or gets limited to one sphere of activity. So Data Analytics is my new string bag, and Predictive Analytics is the first field of relevant activity to be placed inside it. Or do I mean Predictive behaviour analytics?

I was very impressed by analysts studying our use of electricity (http://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/want-to-predict-human-behavior-use-these-6-lessons-based-on-data-). Since the work throws up some lessons which we should bear in mind as we push predictive analytics into advertising and marketing. The thought that it was easier to influence human populations through peer pressure and an appeal to altruism, as against offers of “two for one”, cash bonuses and discounts is clearly true, yet our behaviour in marketing and advertising demonstrates that we behave as if the opposite was the case. The emphasis on knowing the industry context – all analytics are contextualised – and the thought that, even today, we tend to try to make the analysis work on insufficient data, are both notions that ring true for me. We need as well to develop some scientific rigour around this type of work, using good scientific method to develop and disprove working hypotheses. Discerning the signal from the noise, like “never stop improving”, are vital, as well as being hard to do. I ended this investigation thinking that even as the science was young, the attitudes of users as customers were even more immature. If we are to get good results we have to school ourselves to ask the right questions – and know which of our expectations are least likely to be met.

Which brings me to the people we should be asking. Amongst the sites and companies that I looked at, many were devoted from differing angles to marketing and advertising. But many took such differing approaches that you could imagine using several in different but aligned contexts. Take a look for example at DataSift (www.datasift.com). It now claims some 70% accuracy (this is a high number) in sentiment tracking, creating an effective toolset for interpreting social data. Here is the answer to those many publishers in the last year who have asked me “what is social media data for, once you have harvested it?” Yet this is completely different from something like SumAll (https://sumall.com), which is a marketeers toolset for data visualization, enabling users to detct and dsiplay the patterns that analysis creates in the data. Then again, marketing people will find MapR (www.mapr.com) fascinating, as a set of tools to support pricing decisions and develop customer experience analytics. Over at Rocket Fuel Inc (www.rocketfuel.com) you can see artificial intelligence being applied to digital advertising. As a great believer in sponsorship, I found their Sponsorship Booster modelling impressive. This player in predictive modelling has venture capital support from a range of players, from Summit to Nokia.

When the data is flowing in real time, different analytical tools are called for, and MemSQL (www.memsql.com) has customers as diverse as Zynga, and Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley to prove it. Zoomdata (www.zoomdata.com) is a wonderful contextualization environment allowing users to connect data, stream it, visualize it and give end-user access to it – on the fly. This is technology which really could have a transformative effect on the way that you interface your content to end users, and you can demo it on the Data Palette on the site. And finally, do you have enough of the right data? Or does some government office somewhere have data that could immensely improve your results? Check it on Enigma (press.enigma.io), the self-styled “Google of Public Data”, a discovery tool which could change radically product offerings throughout the industry. Perhaps it is significent that the New York Times is an investor here.

So, for the publisher who has built the platform and integrated search, and perhaps begun to develop some custom tools, there is a very heartening message in all of this. A prolific tool set industry is growing up around you at enormous pace, and if these seven culled from the data industry long lists are anything to judge by, the move from commoditized data increasingly free on the network to higher levels of value add which preserve customer retention and enhance brand are well within our grasp.

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