First of all, a (very) old, (very) bad joke. The great Roy Thomson is sitting in an aircraft at Bangkok en route to Australia. “Get me the Bangkok Times”, he snaps to an aide. The young assistant returns in due course and gives the press tycoon his newspaper. “What did it cost us?”, the great man enquires. “10p”, replies the slightly surprized executive. “Cheap at the price if we got the properties as well” growled the newspaper acquisition legend. But this story comes to mind yet again from my 1960s publishing days not just because the price of a newspaper title is falling so rapidly, but because Roy Thomson was the last of a breed: he bought newspapers without any intention of imposing his views on the world, but simply – indeed, “purely” – to make money. Since his time, and I do not exempt Rupert Murdoch from this, newspaper proprietors have bought in to change the world, exercise power, develop a personal following or compensate for something missing elsewhere in life. And this week, as the Boston Globe goes for a pittance to an industrialist and now the Washington Post goes to Jeff Bezos for a mere $250 million we are back on the track created by the Chicago Herald Tribune: very expensive power jewellery for very rich people.

None of this will save a newspaper or make it more relevant to now-lost audiences. Jeff Bezos is an outstanding businessman who has created a singularly powerful ecommerce environment, but he may not have the answer to news in the network. Bob Woodward says on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “This isn’t Rupert Murdoch buying The Wall Street Journal, this is somebody who believes in the values that the Post has been prominent in practicing, and so I don’t see any downside,”
(http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/washington-post-sale-jeff-bezos-bob-woodward-rupert-murdoch-95226.html#ixzz2bDFk8ntc”), but for all we know at present, Politico, where I saw this story, is the true successor of political news and comment in newspapers. Jeff Bezos will be an experimenter and a catalyst for change, if we can go by his record, but while we wait it may be more interesting to see how the remaining assets of the Graham family fall. For example, will Kaplan go, and which Pearson competitor will try to offset flagging textbook fortunes by buying it (although even Kaplan is looking a bit past its best).

What would be good is a way of putting together the thinking of the best minds and begin to test and re-iterate models of engagement for networked populations. OK, we have done this before and the answer was Twitter – but I do not despair. The best thing that Jeff Bezos has bought may be a brand that he can transfer elsewhere for credibility and profit. All predecessors in the re-invention stakes have started from the idea that you take content first formulated from print and then re-condition it for online audiences. He doesn’t – or does not have to – think like that. And he will look at the Guardian, with 50 million online users, the voice of global liberalism in English, the place where everyone from Assange to Snowden comes to leak, and he will wonder why such a mighty distribution empire produces such pitiful revenues. And he will, as an online storekeeper, know which buttons to press to get revenues moving, since he survived the derision of the world for having no business model at Amazon – until his business model, once found, brought the consumer book industry to its knees and may yet point to its exit.

The keynote here is experimentation and re-iteration. All of us who work in the network must work this way now. Even in domestic terms, as I realised this morning when my wife said “I think we really need to have a 3D printer”. As is wise, I agreed, and then sought to justify my agreement by looking at the things that we might do in a small village in the Chilterns with such a device. And within moments I had found it! The largest number of installations of 3D printers and allied additive manufacturing technologies in Europe and the US is in so-called Fab Labs, many of them housed in libraries. My nearest Fab Lab, one of around 150 created in the past 5 years, is at Manchester, some 200 miles away. Here is its rationale: “Fab Labs – digital fabrication laboratories – were set up to inspire people and entrepreneurs to turn their ideas into new products and prototypes by giving them access to a range of advanced digital manufacturing technology.

The idea was conceived by renowned inventor and scientist Professor Neil Gershenfeld at the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). His idea was a simple one: to provide the environment, skills, advanced materials and technology to make things cheaply and quickly anywhere in the world, and to make this available on a local basis to entrepreneurs, students, artists, small businesses and, in fact, anyone who wants to create something new or bespoke.” (www.fablabmanchester.org) And here is something about their impact:

“A global network of over 150 Fab Labs now exists, connecting people, communities and businesses across the world and enabling them to collaborate, problem solve and brainstorm ideas.

Shepherds in Norway have used their Fab Lab to create a system for tracking sheep using their mobile phones, while in Ghana, people have made an innovative truck refrigeration system powered by the vehicle’s own exhaust gases.

In Afghanistan, people are fashioning customised prosthetic limbs, while in South Africa a government and business backed project is creating simple internet connected computers that hook up to televisions and cost just ten dollars each.”

Compared to this record of innovation, surely re-inventing what the newspaper means in the network would be easy? And once we are fully functional as the first Village Fab Lab in Britain we may have a go at that too!

Phil Cotter’s comment on last week’s post here really got me going. Now that I know that suicide bombers max their credit cards before setting off to do the deed I somehow feel a gathering sympathy for the security services. So the starting point is 5 million up-to-the-limit cards? We need to funnel cash into predictive analytics urgently if anything we do is to show better results than airport security (to begin from a very low measure indeed). So I began to look for guidelines in the use and development of predictive analytics, thinking that while we wait for terrorist solutions we might at least get a better handle on marketing. I am surprized and impressed by how much good thinking there is available, so in the spirit of a series of blogs last year (Big Data: Six of the Best) here are some starting points on innovative analytics players who all have resonance for those of us who work in publishing, information and media markets. And a warning: the specialized media in these fields all seem to have lists of favoured start-ups enttitled “50 Best players in Data Analytics”, so I am guilty of scratching lightly at the start-up surface here.

In the same spirit of self-denial that drives me to abstain from a love of eating croissants for breakfast, I have also decided to stop using the expression “B** D***”. I am so depressed by publishers asking what it means, and then finding that, because of “definition creep” or “meaning drift”, I have defined it differently from everyone else, including my own last attempted definition, that I am going to cease the usage until the term dies a natural, or gets limited to one sphere of activity. So Data Analytics is my new string bag, and Predictive Analytics is the first field of relevant activity to be placed inside it. Or do I mean Predictive behaviour analytics?

I was very impressed by analysts studying our use of electricity (http://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/want-to-predict-human-behavior-use-these-6-lessons-based-on-data-). Since the work throws up some lessons which we should bear in mind as we push predictive analytics into advertising and marketing. The thought that it was easier to influence human populations through peer pressure and an appeal to altruism, as against offers of “two for one”, cash bonuses and discounts is clearly true, yet our behaviour in marketing and advertising demonstrates that we behave as if the opposite was the case. The emphasis on knowing the industry context – all analytics are contextualised – and the thought that, even today, we tend to try to make the analysis work on insufficient data, are both notions that ring true for me. We need as well to develop some scientific rigour around this type of work, using good scientific method to develop and disprove working hypotheses. Discerning the signal from the noise, like “never stop improving”, are vital, as well as being hard to do. I ended this investigation thinking that even as the science was young, the attitudes of users as customers were even more immature. If we are to get good results we have to school ourselves to ask the right questions – and know which of our expectations are least likely to be met.

Which brings me to the people we should be asking. Amongst the sites and companies that I looked at, many were devoted from differing angles to marketing and advertising. But many took such differing approaches that you could imagine using several in different but aligned contexts. Take a look for example at DataSift (www.datasift.com). It now claims some 70% accuracy (this is a high number) in sentiment tracking, creating an effective toolset for interpreting social data. Here is the answer to those many publishers in the last year who have asked me “what is social media data for, once you have harvested it?” Yet this is completely different from something like SumAll (https://sumall.com), which is a marketeers toolset for data visualization, enabling users to detct and dsiplay the patterns that analysis creates in the data. Then again, marketing people will find MapR (www.mapr.com) fascinating, as a set of tools to support pricing decisions and develop customer experience analytics. Over at Rocket Fuel Inc (www.rocketfuel.com) you can see artificial intelligence being applied to digital advertising. As a great believer in sponsorship, I found their Sponsorship Booster modelling impressive. This player in predictive modelling has venture capital support from a range of players, from Summit to Nokia.

When the data is flowing in real time, different analytical tools are called for, and MemSQL (www.memsql.com) has customers as diverse as Zynga, and Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley to prove it. Zoomdata (www.zoomdata.com) is a wonderful contextualization environment allowing users to connect data, stream it, visualize it and give end-user access to it – on the fly. This is technology which really could have a transformative effect on the way that you interface your content to end users, and you can demo it on the Data Palette on the site. And finally, do you have enough of the right data? Or does some government office somewhere have data that could immensely improve your results? Check it on Enigma (press.enigma.io), the self-styled “Google of Public Data”, a discovery tool which could change radically product offerings throughout the industry. Perhaps it is significent that the New York Times is an investor here.

So, for the publisher who has built the platform and integrated search, and perhaps begun to develop some custom tools, there is a very heartening message in all of this. A prolific tool set industry is growing up around you at enormous pace, and if these seven culled from the data industry long lists are anything to judge by, the move from commoditized data increasingly free on the network to higher levels of value add which preserve customer retention and enhance brand are well within our grasp.

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